BTC Price Prediction: 2025-2040 Outlook Amid Technical Divergence and Shifting Sentiment

• Technical Divergence: Short-term bearish pressure conflicts with emerging bullish MACD signals
• Sentiment Extremes: Fear metrics near historic buy zones despite security concerns
• Structural Shifts: US institutional volume returning as futures markets cool

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Short-term Bearish Pressure Amid Long-term Bullish Signals

BTCC financial analyst Mia notes BTC is currently trading at 105,136.09 USDT, slightly below its 20-day moving average (106,661.44), indicating short-term bearish pressure. However, the MACD shows a bullish crossover (60.0361 vs -1773.2342) with strong momentum (1833.2702 histogram). Bollinger Bands suggest consolidation (price between 111,082.71 upper band and 102,240.17 lower band).

"The technicals paint a mixed picture," says Mia. "While we’re seeing near-term resistance at the 20-MA, the MACD reversal and mid-Bollinger support suggest accumulation before the next leg up."

Market Sentiment: Fear Dominates But Recovery Signs Emerge

BTCC’s Mia highlights conflicting signals from recent news: "Extreme fear sentiment (per Glassnode) historically precedes rallies, but quantum computing threats and wallet security flaws create headwinds."

Key developments include:

• Coinbase’s Q2 stability/Q3 growth forecast
• US exchanges regaining volume dominance
• Whale accumulation (Babylon Labs withdrawals)

"The futures sentiment slowdown may delay recovery," Mia cautions, "but institutional volume returning to US markets is a bullish structural shift."

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Bitcoin Core V29 Ends Debate Dating Back To Satoshi

Bitcoin Core v29 has been released, resolving a debate within the Bitcoin community that dates back to the days of Satoshi Nakamoto. The release notes explain that the ’-mempoolfullrbf’ startup option, which defaulted to 1 in v28.0, has been removed entirely due to widespread adoption, making full replace-by-fee the standard behavior.

Bitcoin’s Futures Sentiment Weakens, Recovery Slowing?

Bitcoin’s upward momentum has slowed following a recovery phase earlier this week. After nearing $86,000, BTC has slightly retreated, hovering just above $84,000. This mild pullback follows a 10% rise over the past seven days, aiding recovery from recent macroeconomic-pressure-induced corrections. While the price movement suggests a healthy retracement or consolidation, market sentiment indicates caution among derivative traders, with futures sentiment not mirroring the price surge. This divergence could suggest growing uncertainty or a shift in investor behavior.

Coinbase Predicts Stability in Q2 and Growth in Q3 for Crypto Market

According to Coinbase, the crypto market may face volatility or downward pressure in the next 4-6 weeks. The Coinbase Monthly Outlook for April 2025 provides a roadmap for the crypto market, expecting short-term volatility but predicting prices may stabilize in mid-to-late Q2 (May to June 2025), laying a foundation for growth in Q3 (July to September). This period is expected to offer significant opportunities for investors. Similarly, a QCP Capital report predicts a potential bullish Q2 for crypto, drawing from TradFi market trends. However, from April to mid-May, Coinbase anticipates negative market volatility.

US Exchanges Regaining Bitcoin Volume Dominance

On-chain data shows a reversal in Bitcoin volume dominance for US-based exchanges compared to off-shore platforms. The ’US vs. Off-Shore Ratio’ metric, which tracks the ratio between Bitcoin volume on American and foreign platforms, is currently rising. When this metric is above 1, it indicates US-based exchanges dominate in volume. CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr. pointed out this trend in a recent post.

Crypto Market Rests After Recovery

Over the past seven days, the cryptocurrency market fluctuated, initially falling to $2.5 trillion before rising to $2.71 trillion and later correcting to the $2.65 trillion area. The market has failed to overcome the descending resistance line formed from the US Presidential Inauguration Day peak. The sentiment index is moving out of the ’extreme fear’ zone and consolidating in the ’fear’ area, suggesting that the correction may be over, but catalysts for a full-fledged rally are lacking. Bitcoin trades within $83K–$86K, hovering around the 50-day moving average but struggling to break above the 200-day.

Quantum Computing Group Offers 1 BTC for Breaking Bitcoin’s Cryptographic Key

Project Eleven, a quantum computing research firm, has launched the Q-Day Prize, offering 1 bitcoin (BTC) to the first team that can break an elliptic curve cryptographic (ECC) key using a quantum computer. The competition highlights the potential threat quantum computing poses to Bitcoin’s security, with over 10 million addresses potentially at risk. Solutions like the Quantum-Resistant Address Migration Protocol and Coarse-Grained Boson Sampling have been proposed, but both require a hard fork.

Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025-2031

Bitcoin price faces high volatility below $86K. Our prediction expects BTC’s price to reach $160K by the end of 2025 due to the bullish sentiment following the halving event. By 2031, BTC might touch $350,548 following increased institutional adoption. Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin’s price has doubled, with a notable 45% increase in just two weeks following the presidential election.

Whales Withdraw Large Amount of BTC from Babylon Labs

Whales withdrew 14,929 BTC from Babylon Labs just as it launched its Genesis L1 chain. The protocol had previously held over 57K BTC for staking and point farming. The BTC was unstaked and withdrawn to four anonymous addresses, with the largest holding $1.1B in BTC. Since the withdrawals, the BTC has remained in these new anonymous addresses. Potentially, the withdrawals could be sent back to the original depositors. As a result, Babylon’s smart contract is now secured by just 31,701 BTC, lowering the TVL of the protocol down to $2.76B.

Bitcoin Sentiment Close to Extreme Fear - Positive Sign for Recovery?

Data shows the Bitcoin sentiment is currently not far from the extreme fear region, which could be a positive sign for the asset’s recovery. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index, an indicator by Alternative, measures the average sentiment among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets using factors such as trading volume, volatility, market cap dominance, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. A numeric scale from 0 to 100 is used, with values under 47 indicating fear and above 53 indicating greed.

Critical ESP32 Chip Flaw Threatens Bitcoin Wallets Security

A critical security vulnerability is affecting Bitcoin wallets that rely on the China ESP32 chip, crafted by Espressif Systems. The flaw poses a significant risk to traders, potentially leading to the theft of private keys and jeopardizing millions of dollars in digital assets worldwide. The hardware of Blockstream Jade Plus wallet has also integrated the new ESP32-S3 chipset.

Glassnode Reports Remarkable Performance of Hard Assets Bitcoin and Gold Amidst Macroeconomic Uncertainty

The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain as global trade relations realign. However, onchain analytics firm Glassnode reported on April 16 that the performance of hard assets remains remarkable, citing gold’s all-time high and Bitcoin holding above $80,000 despite headwinds. The analysts noted that this could be considered a fascinating signal as the foundations of the financial system enter a period of transition and change.

BTC Price Predictions: 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 Forecasts

Mia projects: "Our 2025 base case assumes $120K if current accumulation patterns hold. Long-term, Bitcoin’s hard cap and gold-like properties could drive exponential growth, though regulatory clarity remains critical."